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Иран будет защищать свою нефть любой ценой

Иран будет защищать свою нефть любой ценой

 

Иранский министр энергетики дал понять всему миру, что Тегеран будет защищать свою мировую долю на рынке нефти любой ценой, принимая правила игры демпингующей Саудовской Аравии и остальных членов ОПЕК.


Когда-то Иран был вторым по величине нефтедобытчиком ОПЕК — сразу после Саудовской Аравии. Однако с 2012 года добыча Ирана существенно снизилась. В 2011 году добыча Тегерана составляла 3.7 млн баррелей в сутки. После введения санкций показатель упал до 1.2 млн баррелей. Иран и 6 ключевых производителей — Британия, Китай, Франция, Германия, Россия и США — в июле достигли соглашения, согласно которому санкции с Ирака, вероятней всего, будут сняты в начале 2016 года. По словам министра энергетики Ирана, страна может быстро восстановить былые уровни добычи. В кратчайшие сроки — месяц спустя после отмены санкций — добыча может быть увеличена на 1 млн баррелей в сутки. Если Иран вновь войдет в игру — нефть может падать и дальше. Особенно на фоне избыточного предложения сырья со стороны ОПЕК и Америки. ОПЕК производит нефти выше собственной квоты в 30 млн баррелей в сутки — по крайней мере, на 1.5 млн баррелей. При этом Иран планирует производить нефть на досанкционном уровне даже в том случае, если черное золото продолжит снижение ниже $40.


Эксперты AMarkets считают, что, вернувшись в игру, Иран со своими нефтяными объемами может запросто окончательно задавить американскую сланцевую нефть — добыча сланцевой нефти обходится дороже добычи конвенционной нефти. Важно понимать, что ключевые ОПЕК-страны сохранят, вероятней всей, текущие высокие объемы добычи сырья даже в том случае, если нефть упадет до $20 за баррель. И, кстати, если по террористической ИГИЛ будут какие-то позитивные подвижки — это тоже будет играть на падение нефти, так как увеличится поток дешевой нефти из стран Ближнего востока.


Автор: Консультант от 30-08-2015, 05:58

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